Tariff trouble at the upfronts: How brands are rethinking advertising 

But this year, the spectacle feels increasingly disconnected from reality. As executives make their glossy pitches, brands are questioning the very premise of long-term advertising commitments.

As major advertisers like Clorox scale back spending and analysts forecast a potential $4 billion drop in TV ad spend, caution is the order of the day. With its rigid annual commitments, the traditional upfront model seems increasingly antiquated in a world where economic policies, including the current tariffs, can shift market conditions overnight.

What’s striking isn’t that brands are pulling back. It’s that they’re still expected to make rigid annual commitments when flexibility has become the most valuable currency of all.

While some brands retreat, a more nuanced picture is emerging. The upfronts aren’t collapsing, but they are being reconfigured. Dollars are shifting, priorities are changing, and flexibility is taking hold. Here’s what you should be watching:

1. Scarcity is real, but only at the very top of the food chain:

Despite the growth of digital platforms, traditional linear television still commands a significant share of ad-supported viewing. Live events, particularly sports and news, continue to draw substantial audiences, making advertising slots within these broadcasts highly valuable and potentially scarce. 

Historically, this inherent scarcity of linear TV inventory, especially during prime time and around major events, has been a primary driver for advertisers to make early commitments through the upfronts. However, the increasing fragmentation of the audience across numerous platforms, coupled with the rise of streaming services and economic uncertainties, has impacted the perceived scarcity of linear TV. 

As more linear television inventory becomes digital and programmatically accessible, only very select and premium inventory like live sports and tentpoles will remain for sellers and advertisers to deal-make more manually. 

Implications for brands:

• Lock must-have sports early: If you need Olympics or NFL reach, commit now; the price curve is rising precisely because supply is limited.
• Leverage flexibility elsewhere: Hold entertainment budgets for scatter or programmatic CTV, where surplus inventory is driving deal-friendly terms.
• Press for proof of “premium”: Ask sellers to show brand-safety, viewability, and co-viewing data that justify any CPM uplift.
• Blend creator and tent-pole packages: The biggest shift this year is mainstream acceptance of top-tier creator content as premium video. Use that to extend reach cost-efficiently.

2. Demand agility, not just reach:

The traditional upfront model, with its emphasis on securing audience guarantees months in advance, is ill-suited to a volatile market. Brands need to prioritize networks and platforms that offer maximum flexibility.

Outcome-based buying flips the model. When a product spikes in demand at 3 p.m., marketers need real-time access to audiences, not inventory locked in six months earlier. That requires platforms where investment can flex with live demand signals, not seasonal forecasts.

What to look for:

• Short-term commitments: Negotiate options to adjust spending based on real-time economic indicators.
• Cross-platform fluidity: Ensure buys can be easily shifted between linear TV, streaming, and digital video to follow audience migration.
• Data-driven optimization: Prioritize networks that provide granular data and advanced analytics, not modeled reach estimates, to optimize campaigns on the fly.

3. Redefine the role of video

The migration from linear to digital video isn’t new, but it’s accelerating. Over the next two years, expect more of the linear pool to be programmatically accessible, while only premium live inventory (NFL, Olympics, tentpoles) remains in the manual, deal-based world.

That means success will belong to brands that treat video as a dynamic storefront, not a static brand billboard.

Brands need to evolve how video works across the funnel. It can now drive both brand and performance. Case in point: Amazon Prime Video’s ad tier blends entertainment with commerce. With billions of shopper signals behind it, Amazon enables intent-based targeting, like reaching viewers who watched Reacher and added running shoes to their cart in the last week.

This collapses the traditional brand/performance divide. Linear TV can’t offer that granularity. But connected TV (CTV) increasingly can.

Where to reallocate:

• Streaming with signal: Platforms like Amazon, Netflix (with Microsoft), and YouTube allow for intent-based segmentation and real-time optimization.
• CTV with attribution: Invest in video environments that allow pixel tracking, conversion logs, and deterministic ID graphs.
• Commerce-connected placements: Seek out video inventory tied to shopper data, not just viewer data.
• Sports, experiential, and influencer: These channels can deliver high-impact, targeted reach that complements broader media buys.

4. Prioritize value over volume:

In an uncertain economy, brands can’t afford to chase impressions at any cost. The focus must shift to efficiency and effectiveness.

And brands should resist the urge to pivot too hard toward performance marketing channels. If the pandemic taught us anything, it’s that many brands will have the urge to funnel everything into performance or cut spending altogether. But history has shown that the brands that continue to invest in their brand will weather the storm and see stronger performances when the uncertainty wanes than those that do not.

Key metrics:

• Beyond ROAS and CPA: Emphasize metrics like customer lifetime value (CLTV), net profit, and brand lift.
• Audience quality: Prioritize reaching the right audience, not just the largest one.
• Attribution clarity: Choose media with transparent, verifiable contribution to outcomes, not media that hides behind modeled results.

5. Demand transparency and shared accountability:

The upfronts have historically been opaque, with complex deals and limited accountability. This year, brands should demand a new level of transparency from their network partners.

Brands are pushing for new rules of engagement:

• Clear pricing structures: Understand exactly how your dollars are being spent and what you’re getting in return.
• Data access: Insist on access to granular, real-time data on campaign performance.
• Collaborative planning: Move beyond transactional relationships to true partnerships with networks, with shared goals and mutual accountability.

The 2025 upfronts may lack the certainty of years past, but they present an opportunity. The key lies in balancing caution with innovation, reassessing media mixes, and exploring flexible advertising channels.

This isn’t a time to panic, but to pivot. Today’s economic environment, shaped by tariff policies, inflation, and shifting consumer behavior, demands a fundamentally different approach to media investment. The brands that thrive won’t be those making the most significant upfront commitments, but those building the most adaptive systems.