The ‘AI’ in uncertainty: How retailers can practically use tech to predict, adapt, & win

From sudden tariff hikes to shifting supply chains and erratic consumer spending patterns, retailers are increasingly asked to navigate the unknown while still delivering growth. Traditional playbooks, which rely on historical performance or long-range static planning, are no longer sufficient. Economic conditions can change overnight. And with them, the rules of competition.

But if the past few years have taught us anything, it’s this: uncertainty doesn’t have to be paralyzing. Reckitt turned pandemic chaos into a proving ground for AI, using predictive tools to rebalance production and cut waste. More recently, Walmart has leveraged price analytics to redefine value and gain traction with higher-income shoppers.

Both show that uncertainty can be a competitive advantage if you’re set up to predict and adapt faster than everyone else.

DEPT® and Shopify are working together on a global scale to help retailers tackle these challenges and turn uncertainty into opportunity.

This includes helping retailers take advantage of AI. Done right, AI is not just a tool for efficiency. It’s a capability that helps retailers see around corners, anticipate change, and take decisive action before competitors even sense the shift. AI can process vast, complex data sets quickly and objectively, uncovering patterns and predicting outcomes that humans might miss due to bias or limited capacity.

Modern commerce moves fast. U.S. retail e-commerce sales for 2025 are expected to total $1.47 trillion, up 9.78% from 2024.

What worked last season might not work next week. Relying on gut instinct or outdated data can’t keep up with shifting consumer behavior, supply chain pressures, and rising costs. Today’s retailers need smarter tools that bring real-time insights into planning, pricing, and profitability so they can move with the market, not chase it.

AI-powered forecasting models are helping retailers move beyond guesswork. For instance, Kraft Heinz, a Shopify customer, uses an AI platform called Lighthouse to optimize supply chain efficiency.

Furthermore, Sidekick, Shopify’s AI assistant, enables brands to perform complex, multi-step reasoning by integrating data from multiple sources. By ingesting real-time signals, from supplier behavior to regional cost fluctuations, predictive tools can simulate multiple scenarios and guide smarter choices.

AI’s role in retail isn’t limited to prediction. Increasingly, it powers the systems that enable real-time responses.

We’re seeing brands use AI to rebalance inventory across warehouses based on live demand signals, to dynamically localize product pages in response to new regulatory disclosures, and to adjust pricing based on shifting input costs. Not quarterly, but daily.

For one DEPT® client, who has many SKUs and whose business is highly seasonal, this has meant identifying the sales of core products—the ones that sell well in any season—as bellwether metrics for overall consumer sentiment. They are tracking these sales more closely as an indicator of potential volatility that could otherwise be masked by the many other variables in their business.

Further, Shopify’s new Storefront MCP lets retailers build specialized AI shopping agents that can search products, answer customer questions, and build carts, all in real-time. These agents securely access product catalogs and store information to simplify the shopping experience and unlock new, high-fidelity sales channels.

The goal isn’t to replace human judgment. It’s to automate what should be responsive so that people can focus on what should be intentional.

Retailers that win in this environment will be those that connect prediction to execution. Not just forecasting what might happen, but designing systems that adjust course when it does.

For retail and DTC leaders navigating global volatility, here are five steps to take now:

• Audit your forecasting capabilities. Are you overly reliant on lagging indicators? Modern forecasting needs to include scenario modeling, regional signals, and near-term adaptability, not just historical sales curves. Shopify offers a Tariff Guide tool to assist merchants importing products to the U.S. in finding applicable tariff rates for their goods.
• Stress test your commerce stack. Can your current infrastructure support fast pivots, or are you locked into a rigid system that slows you down? If your tech doesn’t let you experiment, it may be costing you more than you think. Consider performing a resilience assessment that can help you build a better business case for changes to your commerce (or broader marketing) tech stack with your CFO and commercial teams.
• Reevaluate the total cost of ownership. Don’t just look at the cost per unit. Consider the full picture—tariffs, freight, duties, time-to-cash, and risk. AI-enabled modeling tools can help surface hidden costs and opportunity areas. Additionally, Shopify’s TCO Calculator helps brands reduce costs and increase revenue by evaluating platforms beyond initial setup and implementation costs.
• Automate where agility matters most. While many of our clients are accelerating their automation agenda, it remains a complex and costly task fraught with risks. Focus on the parts of your business that are most vulnerable to volatility: logistics, localization, and pricing. These are areas where real-time responsiveness can mean the difference between margin and markdown.
• Turn insights into action. The real power of AI comes when it’s integrated end-to-end. That means connecting predictive signals to decision-making systems, whether that’s surfacing smarter merchandising strategies or dynamically adjusting customer experience flows. Mastermind Toys used an AI-powered product and saw 300% YoY digital sales growth, enabling a better understanding of shopper intent to match consumers with products.

None of this is about shiny tools or chasing trends. AI isn’t a gimmick or a silver bullet. It’s a capability. One that allows retailers to make smarter decisions, move faster, and de-risk the future.

As global commerce continues to evolve under pressure, the question isn’t whether volatility will strike. It’s whether your business is ready to respond. With clarity, speed, and confidence.

Retailers who view uncertainty not as a threat but as a catalyst for innovation will emerge stronger. And the best way to do that is to make AI not just a backend tool, but a front-line enabler of strategic growth.