The Black Friday 2025 paradox: Calculated consumers & AI advantage

On one hand, a climate of calculated consumer spending and depleted savings means shoppers are more deliberate and value-focused than ever. 

On the other hand, a revolution in AI has armed brands with unprecedented tools for targeting and personalization, creating a new landscape where you can win a greater share of a tightening wallet. 

This collision means the old playbook of deep, site-wide discounts is incomplete. Winning in 2025 requires a more agile, data-driven, and human-centric approach that navigates both economic caution and technological expectations. 

At DEPT®, we help brands navigate what’s next. Here is our playbook for Black Friday 2025, focusing on the five digital strategies that will make the difference between being part of the noise and leading the market.

The macroeconomic climate for Black Friday 2025 is one of caution. With depleted savings and persistent inflation, consumers are being more deliberate with their spending. But this pressure isn’t felt equally. According to Visa’s U.S. Annual Economic Outlook and Neilson’s 2024 recap, the market has split into two dominant behavioral profiles:  

• The value-seekers. According to GWI, over 75% of consumers in both the US and Europe demonstrate value-seeking behaviors, from self-identifying as price-conscious, to prioritizing flexible payment options like BNPL, to using comparison tools and researching the best deals. This “value-driven majority” is large, deliberate, and motivated by affordability, flexibility, and a need to make every dollar (or euro) go as far as possible.
• The experience-seeking affluent. At the same time, a smaller but powerful segment is still spending, but with a different lens. GWI shows just 8.6% of U.S. consumers and 12.7% of European consumers identify as “affluent,” and this group tends to prioritize brand trust, product quality, and a seamless experience over price. While fewer in number, they often deliver higher lifetime value and greater willingness to advocate for the brands they love.

CMO Takeaway: The most critical decision is choosing your primary battleground. Are you built to win on undeniable value for the broader market? Or on creating a premium, experience-led proposition for fewer, but higher-value customers? A focused strategy that aligns with your brand’s strengths will be far more effective than trying to be everything to everyone.

The customer you’re trying to reach has evolved. They’re empowered by technology but more skeptical than ever.

• AI as a personal concierge: AI is no longer just a back-end tool; it’s a consumer-facing shopping assistant. A stunning 43% of Gen Z consumers are comfortable having an AI agent shop on their behalf. They expect you to anticipate their needs with hyper-personalized recommendations and experiences in real time.  
• The authenticity crisis: The rise of AI-generated content has fueled a crisis of trust. 75% of Americans trust online content less than ever before. Consumers gravitate toward brands that offer radical transparency and align with their values.  
• The non-linear journey: The traditional marketing funnel is long dead. A customer might discover a product on Amazon, research it on Reddit, and buy it through their favorite influencer’s commission link. They expect a consistent, frictionless experience at every step.  

CMO Takeaway: The modern shopper trusts AI to find products but doesn’t trust the content they see online until it’s validated. This is the central challenge. Your job is to build a brand so authentic and transparent that it becomes a trusted signal in a noisy world, delivering a seamless experience for customers no matter where they are on their non-linear journey.

Yes, consumers have high expectations of personalization. But that doesn’t mean you abandon broad-reach creative. Some of the most effective campaigns in recent years have been built around a single, clear idea that resonates broadly, then flexes in execution.

The goal isn’t to trade big ideas for hyper-niche segmentation. Instead, it’s to scale your message efficiently while layering smart, AI-driven personalization once a customer shows intent. Creative still leads, but personalization refines the path once the journey has begun.  

• Build a first-party data fortress: With third-party cookies gone, first- and zero-party data are your most valuable assets. Invest in collecting this data through engaging loyalty programs, interactive quizzes, and other value exchanges where customers get a tangible benefit in return.  
• Orchestrate journeys in real time: Move beyond static segments. Use AI to adapt the customer experience based on live behavior. This means AI-powered wishlists that follow users across sessions and dynamic product recommendations that shift with every click.  
• Personalize the promotion: Use your data to personalize the offer itself. Create tiered promotions that reward higher spending, offer exclusive discounts to VIPs, and generate dynamic bundles to increase Average Order Value (AOV).  

In a low-trust digital world, “authenticity” often feels like a buzzword. For Black Friday, building trust requires taking concrete actions that prove your brand’s integrity when it matters most. 

• Amplify real customer voices: The most trusted voice is another customer’s. Prominently feature user-generated content (UGC) like reviews, unboxing videos, and social posts in your Black Friday campaigns. This provides powerful social proof at the moment of decision.  
• It’s not all about reach: Consider shifting budget from mega-influencers to micro-influencers who have a genuine, demonstrable affinity for your product. Their recommendations carry more weight with niche communities and drive higher engagement. Structure these as long-term partnerships focused on authentic advocacy, not one-off transactional posts.  
• Contribute, don’t just claim. Consumers are skeptical because they’ve heard it all before. They want to know what you’re doing differently and why it matters. Use Black Friday as a moment to cut through the noise with real impact: Spotlight product innovations that reduce waste, slower shipping that lowers your footprint, or give-back programs that turn purchases into contributions. Most importantly, practice radical transparency instead of making misleading claims that risk being seen as greenwashing

The final steps of the journey (payment and fulfillment) are where most sales are lost. Cart abandonment rates can exceed 76% during Black Friday, with most drop-offs happening at the payment stage. Mastering the moment of purchase is about converting that hard-won, lower-funnel traffic.

• Offer flexible payments: In a cash-flow-conscious economy, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is a critical conversion lever. For a shopper arriving from an ad, seeing BNPL and mobile wallet options immediately removes a key barrier to conversion. 
• Optimize mobile checkout: With mobile driving the majority of traffic and sales, the checkout must be ruthlessly simple. This is especially crucial for traffic originating from mobile-first channels like social commerce and apps, where a clunky checkout process will lead to an immediate bounce. 
• Learn from (retail) checkout behavior: The best checkout strategies aren’t invented, they’re observed. Retailers like Amazon have spent billions optimizing checkout for speed, trust, and convenience. DTC brands can adapt by meeting those same expectations by integrating trusted, seamless options like Amazon Pay, Apple Pay, or Shop Pay. 

“Creating experiences” can sound vague. In practice, it means using technology to answer customer questions, build purchase confidence, and reduce returns. With product discovery now heavily driven by visual platforms like TikTok and Pinterest, these tools are direct responses to how consumers shop today.  

• Use AR to increase purchase confidence: For categories like beauty, fashion, and home goods, Augmented Reality is a proven conversion tool. Letting a customer “try on” a lipstick shade or visualize a sofa in their living room directly addresses purchase hesitation. Brands using AR have seen conversion rates increase by up to 94% because it bridges the gap between online browsing and tangible reality.  
• Connect inspiration to inventory with visual search: Consumers constantly discover products through images on social media. Visual search technology allows them to take a screenshot or photo and instantly find that item (or similar ones) in your store. 
• Make content shoppable: The line between content and commerce is gone. Turn inspiration into transaction by making your video content and live streams on platforms like TikTok and YouTube directly shoppable. This creates a seamless path to purchase within the entertainment experience, capturing impulse buys and converting interest at its peak.  

Consumers are cautious, but opportunity is abundant for the brands that adapt.

And while the strategies in this playbook are deeply applicable to the Black Friday frenzy, they’re also the foundational components of a more agile, intelligent, and customer-centric commerce engine. By embracing them, you’ll both earn conversions and build lasting brand equity in the process.